Ripudaman Pachauri

The future of India-Maldives relations will likely be shaped by a combination of strategic interests, economic cooperation, and political developments. Both countries have expressed a commitment to maintaining and enhancing their partnership despite potential challenges.
The complex and evolving relationship, between the two countries are influenced by geopolitical, economic, and security considerations. Here are some key points about their future relations:

1. Geopolitical Importance: The Maldives' strategic location in the Indian Ocean makes it crucial for India's maritime security and regional stability. India aims to maintain strong ties to counter China's growing influence in the region.

2. Economic Cooperation: Both countries are working on enhancing trade and economic ties. Initiatives like the Greater Male Connectivity Project, for instance, is a major initiative aimed at improving connectivity within the Maldives and the launch of the RuPay card in the Maldives are steps towards deeper economic integration.
   India has been a significant economic partner for the Maldives, providing financial aid and investment in various infrastructure projects. These projects include the construction of bridges, roads, and other essential infrastructure and are expected to boost trade, tourism, and overall economic growth in the region.

3. Defense and Security: India and the Maldives cooperate closely on defense and security matters, including counter-terrorism and anti-piracy efforts. Recent developments have focused on strengthening defense cooperation.

4. Political Dynamics: The political landscape in the Maldives can impact bilateral relations. The current President, Mohamed Muizzu, has shown an inclination towards China, which may pose challenges for India.

5. Cultural and People-to-people Ties: The strong cultural and historical ties between the two nations continue to play a significant role in their relationship. The Indian diaspora in the Maldives and tourism exchanges further strengthen these bonds.

Over the years, the two countries have developed close strategic, military, economic, and cultural connections. India has supported the Maldives in various ways, including providing aid during crises.

1. Economic Ties:  India is one of the Maldives' largest trading partners. Key exports from India include food products, construction materials, and pharmaceuticals, while the Maldives exports marine products to India. Tourism is a vital sector for the Maldivian economy, and India is a significant source of tourists. The cultural and geographical proximity between the two nations has bolstered this exchange. India has extended financial assistance to the Maldives during economic crises, including currency swaps and loans to help stabilize the Maldivian economy.

2. Strategic Interests: The Maldives' location in the Indian Ocean makes it a key player in regional security. India has a vested interest in ensuring stability in the Maldives to counterbalance China's growing influence in the region. 

3. Political Dynamics: The political landscape in the Maldives can impact its relations with India. The current administration under President Mohamed Muizzu has shown a tilt towards China, which has led to some tensions with India.

4. Defense Cooperation: India and the Maldives have a history of defense cooperation, including joint military exercises and training programs. This cooperation is crucial for maintaining regional security and countering threats such as piracy and terrorism.

5. Cultural and People-to people Ties: The strong cultural and historical connections between India and the Maldives continue to play a significant role in their relationship. Tourism, education, and cultural exchanges further strengthen these bonds.
   India and the Maldives have a strong developmental partnership, focusing on various sectors such as ports, airports, housing, hospitals, roads, sports facilities, schools, and water and sewerage systems. These projects aim to improve the quality of life for the Maldivian people and promote sustainable development

6. Challenges and Opportunities: While there are challenges, such as the Maldives' growing ties with China and occasional political tensions, there are also opportunities for deeper cooperation in areas like trade, tourism, and environmental sustainability.

Mutual relations between the two countries will likely be shaped by a combination of strategic interests, economic cooperation, and political developments. Both countries have expressed a commitment to maintaining and enhancing their partnership despite potential challenges in various areas.

Financial Assistance
India has provided substantial financial assistance to the Maldives to support its economic stability. For instance, India extended a bilateral currency swap agreement worth USD 400 million and INR 30 billion to help the Maldives tackle its financial challenges. Additionally, India rolled over T-bills subscribed by the State Bank of India, amounting to USD 100 million, providing much-needed financial relief.

The two countries are also exploring cooperation in digital financing and health sectors. This includes initiatives to enhance digital payment systems and improve healthcare infrastructure and services in the Maldives.

Trade and Commerce
Both countries are working on enhancing trade relations. The Maldives imports a significant portion of its goods from India, including food products, construction materials, and pharmaceuticals. Efforts are being made to diversify trade and explore new areas of economic cooperation.

Future Prospects
The future of economic cooperation between India and the Maldives looks promising, with both countries committed to deepening their ties and exploring new areas of collaboration. Continued efforts in infrastructure development, financial assistance, trade, and other sectors will further strengthen their economic partnership.

Strategic Interests Geopolitical Significance
The Maldives' location in the Indian Ocean makes it a key player in regional security. India has a vested interest in ensuring stability in the Maldives to counterbalance China's growing influence in the region. The Indian Ocean is a crucial maritime route for global trade, and maintaining a strong presence in the Maldives helps India secure its strategic interests.

Maritime Security
India and the Maldives collaborate closely on maritime security. This includes joint naval exercises, sharing intelligence, and coordinating efforts to combat piracy and terrorism. The Indian Navy often conducts joint patrols with the Maldivian Coast Guard to ensure the safety and security of the region. The strong partnership in maritime security, driven by their shared interests in maintaining stability in the Indian Ocean Region.

India and the Maldives collaborate on maritime surveillance to address challenges like piracy, illegal fishing, and transnational crime. India has provided advanced radar systems to enhance the Maldives' maritime domain awareness.

Defense Cooperation
India has been a significant defense partner for the Maldives, providing training, equipment, and support to the Maldivian defense forces. This cooperation helps enhance the Maldives' defense capabilities and contributes to regional stability.

India has supported the Maldives in upgrading its defense capabilities, including the construction of the Maldives National Defense Force (MNDF) 'Ekatha' harbor project at Uthuru Thila Falhu (UTF).

India assists in training Maldivian defense personnel and has transferred patrol vessels and landing craft to bolster the Maldives' coastal security.

The partnership extends to search and rescue operations and disaster response, addressing the vulnerabilities of the Maldives' islands to natural disasters.

Economic Interests
India's economic interests in the Maldives are also significant. The Maldives is a popular tourist destination for Indians, and there are strong trade ties between the two countries. India has invested in various infrastructure projects in the Maldives, which not only boosts the Maldivian economy but also strengthens bilateral relations.

The Maldives’ position in the Indian Ocean makes it crucial for India's maritime trade routes. Nearly half of India's external trade and 80% of its energy imports pass through these waters.

Countering External Influence
China: One of India's strategic interests is to counter external influence in the Maldives, particularly from China. China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has led to increased Chinese presence in the region, which India views with concern. By maintaining strong ties with the Maldives, India aims to counterbalance this influence and ensure its own strategic interests are protected.

Turkey: Turkey and the Maldives established diplomatic ties in 1979. The Turkish Embassy in New Delhi is accredited to the Maldives, and the Maldives' Permanent Mission in Geneva is accredited to Turkey.

Turkey has been building its influence in the Maldives through diplomatic, economic, and cultural engagements. Trade between the two nations reached $46.5 million in 2019. A Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) was signed in 2024, offering tariff reductions on Maldivian fish exports and fostering economic collaboration.

Turkey has offered assistance in areas like prison reform and has engaged in discussions on broader security cooperation. Maldives' recent foreign policy shift under President Mohamed Muizzu has opened doors for Turkey to deepen its ties. This includes exploring partnerships in renewable energy, higher education, and infrastructure. While there are no formal economic cooperation mechanisms, Turkey has shown interest in expanding trade and investment; enhance its presence in this vital area. Turkey's stakes in the Maldives highlight its ambition to play a more significant role in shaping regional geopolitics.

European Union (EU): The EU supports democratic reforms, the rule of law, and human rights in the Maldives. It has provided assistance for judiciary reforms and strengthening civil society through initiatives like the "Accountability and Integrity Matters" project.

Given the Maldives' vulnerability to climate change, the EU has prioritized green transition, climate change mitigation, and biodiversity protection. These efforts are part of the EU's Multi-Annual Indicative Programme (MIP) for 2021-2027.

The EU is working with the Maldives to enhance trade relations. The Maldives' accession to agreements like the EU-OACPS Economic Partnership Agreement aims to provide tariff-free access to the EU market, benefiting sectors like fisheries.

The EU's Indo-Pacific Strategy includes the Maldives as a key partner, emphasizing cooperation on global challenges such as sustainable development and security.

Regional Stability
India and the Maldives share a common interest in maintaining regional stability. Both countries work together to address common challenges such as climate change, natural disasters, and regional conflicts. This cooperation helps promote peace and stability in the Indian Ocean region.

Maldives views regional stability as a critical concern due to its strategic location in the Indian Ocean and its vulnerability to external influences.

The Maldives is situated at the crossroads of major maritime trade routes, making it a focal point for geopolitical competition among global powers like India, China, and the United States. The Maldives seeks to balance these influences while maintaining its sovereignty.

Ensuring the safety of its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) is a priority for the Maldives. Issues like piracy, illegal fishing, and transnational crime pose significant challenges to regional stability. Collaborating with regional powers like India and organizations such as the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) is vital for its security.

As one of the most climate-vulnerable nations, the Maldives views environmental security as integral to regional stability. Rising sea levels and natural disasters threaten its very existence, making international cooperation essential.

The Maldives is concerned about the potential for extremist activities in the region. It collaborates with neighboring countries and international partners to address these threats.

Political Dynamics
Under former President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, the Maldives adopted an "India First" policy, strengthening ties with India through agreements on infrastructure, security, and economic cooperation. 

However, the political landscape in the Maldives can impact its relations with India. The current administration under President Mohamed Muizzu has shown a tilt towards China, which has led to some tensions with India and but countries have expressed a commitment to maintaining and enhancing their partnership despite these challenges.

Maldives' foreign policy focuses on maintaining neutrality while maximizing benefits from strategic partnerships.

Historical Context
The Maldives was inhabited as early as the 5th century BCE by Buddhist peoples, likely from Sri Lanka and southern India. Buddhism played a significant role in shaping the early culture and architecture of the islands.

In 1153 CE, Islam was adopted as the state religion, marking a significant cultural and political shift. The Maldives became a sultanate, with Islamic traditions deeply influencing its governance and society.

The Portuguese briefly occupied the Maldives from 1558 to 1573 but were expelled by local resistance. Later, the islands came under the influence of the Dutch and then the British, who controlled nearby Sri Lanka.

In 1887, the Maldives became a British protectorate. While the British managed foreign affairs and defense, the local sultans retained authority over internal matters.

Eventually Maldives got independence in 1965 and India was one of the first countries to recognize Maldives. 

Both counties share a rich history of cultural exchanges. The Maldives has been influenced by Indian culture, particularly from the southern states of Kerala and Tamil Nadu. This influence is evident in the Maldivian language, cuisine, and traditions.

Future Opportunities and Prospects in India-Maldives Relationship

Defense Cooperation
India and the Maldives have a history of defense cooperation, including joint military. They conduct joint military exercises to enhance their defense capabilities and interoperability. These exercises, such as "Ekuverin," focus on counter-terrorism, disaster management, and maritime security.

India provides training and capacity-building support to the Maldivian defense forces. This includes training programs for Maldivian military personnel at Indian defense institutions and specialized courses to enhance their skills and knowledge.

India has supplied the Maldives with defense equipment and assistance to strengthen its defense capabilities. This includes patrol vessels, helicopters, and other essential equipment to enhance the Maldivian Coast Guard's operational capabilities.

India and the Maldives work together to ensure the safety and security of the region, including joint patrols and intelligence sharing to combat piracy.

This cooperation is crucial for maintaining regional security and countering threats such as terrorism.  

However, the India being a regional power and a big international stakeholder in the defense capabilities and peace advocacy can help Maldives to take over all of its border security concerns and reduce the defense spending thus help Maldives concentrate more on local development and expenditures. 

Cultural and People-to-People Ties
The strong cultural and historical connections between India and the Maldives continue to play a significant role in their relationship. Tourism, education, and cultural exchanges further strengthen these bonds. The Indian diaspora in the Maldives also contributes to the close ties between the two nations.

The 2008 Constitution of the Maldives designates Sunni Islam as the state religion and mandates that all laws must be consistent with Islamic principles. Judges are required to consider Sharia law when the constitution or other laws are silent on certain matters.

Islam being the state religion of the Maldives and the constitution requires all citizens to be Muslims. This makes the Maldives one of the few countries where citizenship is tied to religious adherence. This may enhance the influence of Strong Middle Eastern Islamic countries in Maldives and influence the regional security. 

The Maldives has strict rules regarding dress and behavior, especially on local islands. Non-Muslims are not allowed to practice their faith publicly, and the establishment of places of worship for non-Islamic religions is prohibited. The law also restricts the public possession and distribution of non-Muslim religious materials.

Mosques and prayer houses are under the control of the Maldives Islamic Affairs (MIA), and only certified Muslim scholars can issue religious rulings (fatwas).

Since there is lot of Indian diasporas that live in Maldives and Maldivians had strong cultural ties with India over the centuries, India and Maldives must work together to access the serious consequences of 2008 constitution amendments to adopt Sharia Law and advocate to mend the Maldivian Sharia laws for Non-Muslims in the country. This would provide fluidity of Indian investments and support to Maldives.

Tourism
Tourism is a significant aspect of the relationship between the two countries. The Maldives is a popular destination for Indian tourists, and this has helped strengthen people-to-people ties. The ease of travel and the availability of direct flights have made it convenient for Indians to visit the Maldives.

Education and Scholarships
India must offer various scholarships and educational opportunities to Maldivian students in the field of Ayurveda, Yoga and Multi-Cultural Exposure Tours. More Maldivian students must be provided with grants for touring the rich cultural centers of India which helps foster a sense of connection and understanding between the two nations.

Cultural Exchanges
Both countries must more actively participate in cultural exchanges, including art exhibitions, music and dance performances, and literary events. These exchanges help promote mutual understanding and appreciation of each other's cultures.

Indian Diaspora
Many Indian business has heavily invested in Maldives’ economy. About thirty thousand medical workforces (doctors, nurses, and medical officers) are working in the health sector. The Indira Gandhi Memorial Hospital (IGMH) in Malé, contributing to critical services and capacity building. This major non-Muslim Indian diaspora is an integral part of the Maldives' healthcare landscape that strengthens the economic and cultural ties between two nations. 

However, one of the major concerns of Indian Diaspora is the religious freedom. Places of worship must be allowed to be built and self-managed for non-Muslim communities in Maldives. Maldivian government should be more flexible to give rights to openly practice any non-state religion in the country.

Introduction to the impact of the US-China trade war on geopolitical affairs
China’s heavy exposure to Latin American Countries like Brazil and Argentina and America’s decision of increasing tariffs on Steel and Aluminum would again contribute to the bankruptcy of the Chinese banks. Also, Reuters recently reported that the Chinese economy is on the path of Crash and they are going to lose badly. However, Reuters being an American news agency is biased and promotes their national interest. That said, noted following scenarios standout 

China has 500 of its banks listed on the bankruptcy list. Every day a new bank is failing in China!. In this scenario, the investment of $400 billion they have recently spent in Iran may be categorized as the worst expenditure. In my opinion, I can understand their point, but bringing Iranian oil to China through a lot of hurdles would not be cost-effective strategy. Chinese spending money in Pakistan suits to support the Idiom I really like “pouring water on sand”. This context is reflective of the strategy Chinese spend on Pakistan and can say that the water has been poured, it has been sucked and there is no burp. 

American govt to play an active role in failing CPEC to win the trade war and to cut China with central Asia. Also, American strategical initiatives in Magnolia stand out to say that every other day American diplomats are signing a new partnership deal with Magnolia. This is reflecting American investing pattern and I am confident that it is a sincere investing strategy

3800 Uighurs at the Afghan-China border are ready to become the next generation of Taliban and this time to counter another bigger communist nation, China. There have been Uighurs training camps reported in Pakistan. US is playing a silent role but why is India silent Is not clear but maybe because CPEC security can be counterbalanced by their own militia sitting in Pakistan’s territory. Without defined ownership ties between America and Pakistan nexus can destroy Chinese heavy investments. Then, Why didn’t America take any action to destroyed China within Pakistan so far? We could only infer the answers could be that they wanted the Chinese to invest more and more before any action can be taken. 

What is the possibility of creation of the Khalistan territory?
A possibility that the Khalistan territory can be created for the common interest of the US and Canada. This treaty of thought was discussed in one of the latest interview of Tarek Fateh. Also, Canada based journalist/writer said Punjab should be given to Sikhs to make Khalistan. Did he open the ‘can of worms’ by mistake? Well, there is no surprise as the British supported the Khalistan movement and nurtured it mainly in UK and Canada. And, being thin tenure a slip of tongue is enough to prove Canadian-Britain conspiracy or intentions.

For the US: the prime objective in this scenario is to cut Chinese trade routes. For Canada: the radical Khalistan supporter who has already attained key political and defense positions may want to create Khalistan in 2020 and US will bound to support them at that time. The proposed buffer state Khalistan is a win-win for both the US and Canada. It is like the creation Israel to counterbalance middle eastern countries or creation of the FATA region to cut Indian trade routes in the mid-1940s. That is the region where the battle of the next US-China trade war will be fought.

What are other reason why America should or would counter China?
Death of the world bank; Like any UN organization, world bank also could be on the verge of collapsing. China has created the equivalent of world banking and has heavily distributed loans in third world countries. This is a threat to US foreign and trade policies and America would like to destroy the Chinese banking system at least in his neighborhood. 

Conclusion
However, To Conclude, For the best interest of all, India and US must walk hand-in-hand and ensure that China dies their economic death due to its NPAs in the banking system otherwise the second-best option is to liberate Pakistan Occupied territories. India must stay vigilant and be ready to take back and/or liberate the territories which are currently occupied by Pakistan and mitigate the formation of, Khalistan, a buffer state. This is in the best interest of all. With minimal to no human life loss the battleground can be shifted and war can be won.