Lt Gen Kamal Davar(Retd.)

The Israeli-Hamas armed  altercation in Gaza since Oct 2024 resulting in  nearly the entire Gaza  Strip being devastated with over 75000 fatalities, the Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine  since Feb 2022 and doggedly persisting, the continuing Israeli-Hezbollah and Hamas problems, the  decades old China-Taiwan  quest for the future political status of Taiwan, the continuing on-off Afghanistan-Pakistan border skirmishes  and their artillery duels , the Myanmar civil war besides  internal conflicts  in many parts of the world especially in the African continent continue.   India’s own launching of Operation Sindoor in May 2025 in retaliation to Pakistan’s terror strike against innocent and unarmed tourists in Pahalgam in J&K is also of operational significance.

The above-mentioned conflicts have all paled into relative insignificance with a full breakout of the current West Asian conflagration since end Feb this year. The world on 27 Feb 2026 with all its tensions and problems underwent a cataclysmic change the next day, that is, 28 Feb, when despite ongoing negotiations, the Israel-US combine launched a massive attack with missiles and drones on 28 Feb against Iran. That this War was gradually assuming the contours of a World War, if not halted shortly, was well on the cards.  That this conflict in the Middle East has plunged the world into an unprecedented and alarming energy crisis will be stating the obvious. The flip-flop of the US and Israeli combine’s overall strategic strategy against a weaker but highly determined Iran and the humungous devastation of both military and civil targets in this region including inflicted upon by Israel in Lebanon,  have totally engulfed West Asia in flames. Iran’s nuclear ambitions combined with the blockade and counter blockade of the strategic waterway, The Strait of Hormuz, by Iran and the US respectively threatens not only the fast-dwindling oil and gas supplies to many nations but could be the final trigger to usher in a global war which the world could do without.  

It is pertinent here to analyse the likely contours of the emerging geopolitical order. There are unmistakable indications that there would be a clear transition from a unipolar world to a multipolar global order reducing the dominance of the US the current but fast-fading global super power. Even if efforts are made by both the US and China combined to make the world bipolar it will not meet with much success. Anyway, China’s unprecedented rise, economically and militarily, will be a major factor in the coming decades.  However, the Chinese too have their myriad challenges like humungous dependency on energy imports and search for additional markets in other nations for absorption of their huge exports which fuels their economy. Their internal problems coupled with their global and regional ambitions also pose many challenges to them—- but the Chinese are a wise and patient people, and their handling of such problems has been to their interests!

Nations like Russia, France, Brazil, Japan and India will continually rise along with the EU, Turkey and Iran. The oil rich nations in the Gulf and other regions will now pursue independent avenues for their economic rise shedding the clearly proven ineffective security umbrella of the US— a major dilution for US hegemony which was in pace for decades.

Secondly, the policy of nations practising Strategic Autonomy and independence in foreign and economic policies will emerge in greater strength rather than becoming members of rigid alliance structures as hitherto fore.   Rise of regional power centers across Asia, Africa, Latin America will become the norm in the coming years and reshape global influence patterns. Next—— there will be in all likelihood, geopolitical fragmentation between the Global North and Global South on issues of trade, technology and energy governance. However, bilateral and issue-based partnerships replacing long-term ideological blocs are likely to become the norm. Like the ongoing West Asian War, future conflicts will also lead to rising global energy insecurity caused by geopolitical instability and collateral damage to energy producing regions and maritime choke points. In addition, most nations will thus endeavor towards energy diversification, renewables and building larger strategic energy reserves. 

There will be an expansion of asymmetric warfare capabilities enabling smaller states and non-state actors to challenge major military powers. Integration of artificial intelligence, drones and other unmanned platforms, cyber systems, quantum technologies and autonomous weapons into warfare will be expedited. Nations, big and small, will strive for technological sovereignty especially in semiconductors, tele communications, cyber security and critical infrastructure.  Competition for control over order earth minerals, strategic resources and emerging technologies will only intensify. Powerful nations will make greater use of economic sanctions, trade restrictions and financial systems as instruments of geopolitical pressure.

Regrettably, there will be increased defence spending world-wide diverting scarce resources away from development, public welfare and global warming priorities. A look at the world clearly shows the acute poverty, hunger and poor living standards of millions of people in today’s world. Deepening distrust between major powers will lead to reduced global cooperation on climate change, pandemics and other humanitarian crises.   One point which currently is not being discussed much in the global media is that Europe faces challenges of Russia at its doorstep. They have to make a hard choice of breaking away from the US (NATO without the US) and feel free to engage with Russia and China.  In the succeeding paragraph, a brief analysis of the current West Asian crisis will be in order.

Though for Israel, the Iranian long term nuclear threat is of genuine concern yet for the US  is this War, in reality, an endeavor to stem China’s rise and  use Iran as the battlefield, is a question also perplexing the minds of some analysts! This war, in addition, has also brought out the point that megalomaniac leaders in nations, in the long run , ultimately bring ruin to their countries and there are enough examples in today’s world of certain leaders who display this tendency!

Before specifically India’s likely fortunes in the emerging geopolitical order are summarized, it will be in order to factor in the likely contours of the world order as they appear today and may do so in the foreseeable future. Firstly, the era of unilateralism is over for good and no power including the US will have the power or resources to politically or economically or militarily dominate the world. The era of bilateralism among nations will likely be the order of the day. Multilateralism will exist through some institutions like the UN and its Security Council, BRICS, G-7, G-20, ASEAN, GCC— but in reality it will be more for discussions rather than being effective on the ground. The just concluded US President’s visit to China has clearly brought out the diminishing power of the US and ascendancy of China growing in the foreseeable future. All analysts across the world agree that President Trump was clearly on the backfoot with China during this visit and no progress on the current West Asian War or the Hormuz crisis or the major problems of Taiwan’s future were resolved. 

Secondly, asymmetric warfare will assume greater importance and in many newer innovative forms. Even a much smaller nation, militarily speaking, will have the capability to contest a far more militarily powerful nation—- from the current scenario, Iran stands as a perfect example thwarting the combined might of the US and Israel. Thirdly, conventional warfare is already undergoing major changes and it is of critical importance to study the ongoing kinetic conflicts in the world since the last 5 years and adapt them to a nation’s peculiar environment. Employment of AI, cyber warfare, data, quantum computing will increase by leap and bounds. In addition, employment of missiles with large standoff ranges, EW and air defense systems precision guided munitions, drones and other types of unmanned platforms in non-contact warfare will substantially increase. 

Importantly, the entire global structure supporting the oil and gas production and its subsequent export to various consumer nations will now undergo a major change as a result of the ongoing kinetic and non-kinetic conflict as exemplified by the Strait of Hormuz conflict and the ongoing differences between Iran and the US and the Gulf Cooperation nations. This rather serious problem will require maturity and a sense of a cooperative attitude by the concerned stakeholder, indeed a difficult task to be accomplished. The current dismal energy security situation in the world is just beginning. Thus, the fact emerges that, to a large extent, oil exporting and importing nations will now seek independent avenues for both energy exports and imports respectively and traditional oil and gas linkages may have to be discarded.   

It will be pertinent also to take a look at a couple of convergences which the previous US governments have endeavored to fructify keeping their interests in the Indo- Pacific region as also as a deterrent against China. The US had established the QUAD in early this century comprising apart from themselves, India, Japan and Australia. It was revived again in 2017 to energize economic, technological and humanitarian relations among these four nations. It is a not a defense alliance against China as  a few analysts surmise. But the QUAD has in reality not taken off and these four nations must get down to work out its mission for the future. Is it relevant today and if so, its work in cooperation by these four nations needs to be re-energized. Equally the AUKUS, a security-oriented organization comprising the US, UK and Australia was raised in 2021 to ensure the prevalence of a rules based international maritime order in the Indo -Pacific region. This clearly has China on its security radar. But this organization has not carried out any major exercises to ensure better integration and operability among the three members. Thus whether it is the QUAD or the AUKUS, the US must conceive with the other members the future of these organizations and their roles in the India-Pacific region.

Notwithstanding its emerging global status as a rising power, India appears to have taken or , according to some analysts, given a backseat in diplomatic efforts underway to bring in peace between the US and Israel combine with Iran. Nevertheless, India with its otherwise friendly relations with Israel, Iran, the Gulf nations must endeavor working for peace. India’s so-called strategic ally, the US under its mercurial President Trump, has not appeared to be conscious of Indian interests since the past year and has been leaning heavily on Pakistan and his “favourite Field Marshal” Asim Munir especially for the current negotiations between the US and Iran ! Be that as it may, India does not have to be pliant to the US as it will damage our reputation as one of the leaders of the Global South. India has a unique record from being a leader of the non-aligned movement since the mid-50s to advocating multipolarity and practicing strategic autonomy in our larger national interests.

Global events of the last five years have clearly brought forth many lessons for India to adopt for its overall wellbeing in the coming years. That there is a new geopolitical global order in the offing is more than apparent. India must analyze with unforgiving deliberation her interests in the strategic fields of security, economics, industry, technology, agriculture and the like.

The current geopolitical system and the likely stressed economic ecosystem of the future points out vividly to some steps which are imperative for India to adopt in her larger national interests.

It is indeed a truism that global crises can spring up without much notice and nations must prepare themselves for it on a regular basis so as not to be caught napping. Security preparedness is a 24/7 endeavor. Thus, this is not the time to get distracted by short term problems or self-created internal differences in India. Accordingly, India must zealously prepare to improve all the constituents of Comprehensive National Power with vision and alacrity. Whether it is overall military power—adequate to face a two-front threat from China and Pakistan individually or combined or the entry of Bangladesh now to make it a three-front threat, India has to be well prepared. Regarding technological, industrial or energy production and in all other fields of human endeavor— self-reliance must remain the cardinal pursuit.

In the field of diplomacy, India must continue to be far more active than it appears! To assist in resolving the current West Asian imbroglio, India must reach out to most, if not all, stakeholders of this Middle East crisis and seek a broad-based solution which provides security and economic well-being to most of the Gulf nations, Iran and Israel. India can explore cooperation among Russia, Iran, Oman, UAE, EU, UK, Japan, ROK and nations who appear neutral and thus useful to help resolve the current crisis.

As the current head of the BRICS, India in the just finished New Delhi conference of Foreign Ministers, India has appealed to the global community to cultivate a peaceful solution for the grave crisis saving the world. Unfortunately, there was no joint communique or a unanimous resolution passed as there was reportedly a rift among the members regards the conduct of the West Asian War.

Though President Trump himself is unpredictable, the US Ambassador to India, Sergei Gor , can be suitably sounded to adequately inform Washington regards India’s views on resolving the Gulf conundrum. India understands that today the US is also on an internal crisis of inflation and a dipping economy. The US’s gun slinging days are over and they too will require some time to build up their reserves for other global challenges US may face beyond Iran which anyway is not done and dusted as yet ! Importantly, before the forthcoming QUAD Foreign Ministers Conference in Delhi, the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, is in Delhi holding important parleys to, perhaps, repair the current state of India-US relations. Some of  President Trump’s policies in the past year including his raising of tariff rates for Indian goods entering US, very harsh revision of visa and immigration rules, interfering in India’s quest for energy products from Russia and virtually forcing India to increase its purchase of US goods in the coming years( US 500 billion dollars’ worth in 5 years ) has not been welcomed in India by the general public. 

Coming home, come what may, India must adhere to its post-independence values in the pursuit of its foreign policies and measures seeking economic self-reliance to the extent possible. A long-term vision and flexibility in approach is sine qua non for managing the emerging geopolitical order where multipolarity, independence in a nation’s policies will transcend traditional alliances and over-dependence on big powers in the years ahead. India must take the lead to be an example for not only the Global South but also the developed world. Finally, I would like to reiterate that the US is getting isolated attributable to the policies of the current US govt and as the Middle East has shown, that it is no longer a net security provider for nations who traditionally have been in its fold. Indeed, very challenging times ahead for the world with war constantly facing it appears highly probable.

India may wish to note that History does not wait for nations that vacillate. It rewards those that prepare and are ever ready.  If India strengthens every pillar of national power while adhering to its tradition of strategic autonomy, fairness and morality even in international affairs, it will not merely adapt to the emerging world order, it will help shape it.  In conclusion, what is eminently pertinent is a quote from a great US President, who was genuinely fond of India, its political leadership and value systems, , President John Fitzgerald Kennedy, who famously stated that “Mankind must put an end to wars or wars will put an end to mankind. “