Subhi Malhotra

China’s Broad Objectives
Myanmar, as a country, holds a lot of strategic potential for China. Geographically, Kyaukpyu is situated on Ramree Island, which is in the Bay of Bengal. This area is of immense importance to India, considering it as the centre of its strategic influence. With the development of a deep seaport funded by China, this influence will be challenged. Along with that, it will also increase the balance of power towards China by expanding its power in the region, extending its goal further of taking forward the BRI project. China has significantly upgraded the Ream Naval Base in Cambodia, opening a joint logistics and training centre at the facility in April 2025. The extensive Chinese-funded expansion includes a new deep-water pier capable of handling large warships and a dry dock, raising concerns about exclusive Chinese military maritime access and the base's strategic importance in the region. The Ream naval base is located on the Gulf of Thailand. Kyaukpyu would then become an important part of BRI, complementing Gwadar (Pakistan), Hambantota (Sri Lanka), and Djibouti (Horn of Africa), among others, completing China’s strategic strings of pearls.

Since this project will also bypass the Malacca Strait, it will allow China to diversify its energy routes and reduce its strategic dependence on other countries. This is because over 80 per cent of China's crude oil imports traverse the Malacca Strait, which can become a vulnerable chokepoint because of any crisis in the United States or its allies. With the plan to build a railway line connecting this town to Mandalay and Yunnan, along with the 770 kilometres oil pipeline from Kyaukpyu to Yunnan and the natural gas pipeline already developed in 2013, this vulnerability will be overcome, giving a much favourable position to an already strong China.

The China-Myanmar Bilateral Relations:

With the land border between China and Myanmar being approximately 2100 kilometres and a direct link to the Bay of Bengal, it becomes uniquely attractive for China to build a relationship with Myanmar, providing it a natural bridge to the Indian Ocean. For Myanmar, which is facing sanctions and isolation globally since the 2021 coup, China emerges as a default partner and a major investor over which it can superficially rely and depend. China has shrewdly engaged and funded all actors in Myanmar, including the former government led by Aung San Suu Kyi and various rebel armies.  This is pushing the Myanmar junta closer towards Beijing, and the development of Kyaukpyu Deep Sea Port presents a win-win situation for both countries.

Additionally, this port has the potential to become a dual-use civilian-military naval base in the future because of its geographical location, giving it proximity to India, tracking the Indian Navy movements, as well as helping in intelligence collection. Since China has also followed the same pattern in other of its development plans, such as the one in Djibouti (which eventually became a naval base) gives this potential military setup gives it a stronger support base, much to the concern of India.

Significantly, the development of the port has been planned in such a way that it will include a Special Economic Zone (SEZ), heavy cargo and large vessels carrying capacity, and transport corridors that will link the region’s coast to the inland trade hubs. All this shows that a multi-billion-dollar project is being planned by China because of the importance it attaches to the regional significance that Myanmar brings. The most important factor is the easy access to the Bay of Bengal region, eventually making China Myanmar’s top trading partner, surpassing other countries in all aspects, especially India.

Implications for India

India India-Myanmar land border is 1643 kilometres long. The Kyaukpyu project will be beneficial for China and Myanmar, but will create a lot of roadblocks for India. Currently, India is strengthening its Act East Policy by engaging with different countries, especially in Southeast Asia. But these connectivity ambitions of India have already started facing delays, thanks to this Chinese project. The Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project (KMTTP) has already faced delays in progression because of the security challenges in Myanmar and the supply chain disruptions it faces. With the introduction of the Chinese presence, which is in a rapid developmental phase, the ability of India is in question, creating a developmental gap.

Traditionally, India has served as a net security provider for Myanmar. This ambitious project of China will give it a dominant position over India, challenging its traditional role. It will also give access to China to the regions of the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea, which India has historically dominated. It may challenge the autonomy and restrict various activities that India has been conducting in these regions since the beginning.

Moreover, intelligence risks for India will increase because of increased Chinese presence, giving them direct access to track the naval assets, along with the ships and submarine movements, and also the missile testing ranges. Although currently this port has been framed as an economic hub, as evident from Hambantota and Gwadar Ports, this port could eventually turn into a military hub, fulfilling the strategic aims and requirements of China.

What can India do?

In today's global scenario, the aims and ambitions of one country cannot be stopped by another but can be altered and restricted. India can follow the same policy, where it can restrict China's growing advancements and follow a secure strategic policy. The most important thing is to strengthen the ties with Myanmar, which is on the verge of breakdown, thanks to China. Because of the 2021 coup, the civil situation of Myanmar is not in a good state. India can expand the developmental and economic assistance that it has already provided. It can also engage militarily by conducting bilateral exercises with the defence forces. Community programs and civil engagement can also be promoted, and since India shares a border with the Northeast, cooperation over border security measures can also help in taking forward the relationship.

Additionally, India can fast-track the long-pending Kaladan project. Connectivity to Sittwe can be improved, and the India-Myanmar-Thailand Highway can be operationalised at the earliest. The Act East Policy of India should continue with a strong vigour, counterbalancing China's growing influence. Apart from that, naval deployments in the Bay of Bengal region can be increased, and maritime awareness can be enhanced to brace for Chinese actions. India can also engage with regional and global platforms such as BIMSTEC, ASEAN, or the United Nations (UN), where it can build relations and discuss shared problems, which will eventually give it a strong position regionally and globally.

Conclusions

For China, the development of Kyaukpyu Deep Sea Port is more than just another infrastructure project; it is Beijing’s push to gain access to the Indian Ocean and strengthen its position in South Asia. Since China and India are in constant competition and at loggerheads, this will give a forward push to China in the face of India. Myanmar needs investment, which will be provided by China; in the process, it will risk increasing the probability of overdependence on China.

India, on the other hand, will face a plethora of challenges, be it maritime competition or the risk of future military warfare or intelligence risk or losing its global position. Therefore, to counter this movement by China, India needs to combine diplomacy, strategy, defence preparedness, and partnerships across the Indo-Pacific.

For Kyaukpyu is not just another port; it is a crucial challenge for India to maintain the strategic balance and uphold stability in the Bay of Bengal region.

Recommendations

Deeper engagement with the ruling military junta in Myanmar and its successor government is essential, despite opposition from the US and Western democracies. India must continue to provide developmental, economic, and military aid and preferential trade benefits to Myanmar, similar to its engagement with the Taliban 2.0 government in Afghanistan. India must manage its own neighbourhood and restrain extra-regional powers from exerting strategic veto and influence in its near abroad. India should align with other Asian powers like Japan, Vietnam, and Indonesia in engaging Myanmar, despite its democratic record. Joint developmental projects co-financed by Japan and India in Myanmar are crucial to prevent total Chinese dominance of this small Asian neighbour.

References

Kyaukpyu: Connecting China to the Indian Ocean. (n.d.). CSIS | Centre for Strategic and International Studies. https://www.csis.org/analysis/kyaukpyu-connecting-china-indian-ocean

'String of pearls': How China-made Kyaukphyu Port in Myanmar threatens India's nuclear attack submarine base. (2024, January 8). Firstpost. https://www.firstpost.com/world/string-of-pearls-how-china-made-kyaukphyu-port-in-myanmar-threatens-indias-nuclear-attack-submarine-base-13588512.html

Zachary Fillingham. (n.d.). Backgrounder: Myanmar’s Kyaukpyu Port. Geopolitics News & Risk Analysis - Keep Pace with a Changing World. https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/backgrounder-myanmars-kyaukpyu-port/