Prof Yoichiro Sato

Optics and Aplomb 

The optics of the summit were good. There was some apprehension in Japan when the scheduled working lunch between the two leaders was canceled. Throughout the 27 and half minutes publicized oval office meeting, Trump was a very gracious host who congratulated the Prime Minister on her unprecedented electoral victory and profusely praised the Japanese nation. However, in response to a question from a Japanese journalist about perceived absence of “prior consultation” with allies including Japan before launching a military attack on Iran, President Trump casually admitted the lack thereof by jokingly referring to the advantage of a surprise during the Pearl Harbor attack. Despite media’ criticism against his joke, it would have been a much bigger problem for PM Takaichi, had President Trump said he consulted her. Prime Minister Takaichi was visibly uncomfortable with this affront but maintained her cool. She repeatedly addressed Mr. Trump by his first name Donald and tried to placate him by showering praise, congratulating him for his son Barron’s birthday etc. A columnist in the Asahi Shimbun quoted US author Ambrose Bierce (1842-1914) In “The Devil’s Dictionary,” who famously defined diplomacy as “the patriotic art of lying for one’s country.” This columnist wrote cheekily: I would like to think that Takaichi was practicing this very art when she declared to the effect that “only Donald can bring peace and prosperity to the world.”

Strait of Hormuz 

President Trump had earlier requested allied naval contributions to secure the Strait of Hormuz. PM Takaichi indicated Japan currently has no plans to send warships but hasn't fully rejected the request, explaining what Japan can and cannot do because of Article 9 of the Japanese constitution. Trump asserted that Japan depends on energy passing through the strait for 95 percent of its needs and China depends on it for 90 percent. Soon after the Japanese delegation’s departure, the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz pushed the envelope by saying on CBS on March 22 “We just had the Japanese prime minister commit to portions of her navy.” After an immediate denial from the Japanese government, the issue was followed up by Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi’s comment that the country is considering a possible minesweeper dispatch upon a ceasefire. The precedence of the Gulf War, after which Japan dispatched a minesweeping unit, as well as the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)’s currently large majority in the lower house of the parliament gave confidence to PM Takaichi. The gaiatsu (foreign pressure) ritual was played well by both the US and LDP leaders. 

Moreover, the ongoing tension surrounding Taiwan makes both Japan and the U.S. fear diverting valuable naval combat ships from the Western Pacific. The seeming U.S. understanding of Japan likely added to President Trump’ fury against the NATO allies in Europe, whose immediate security threats from Russia over Ukraine are largely land- and air-based. Notwithstanding if the criticism against European allies was fair (given that their dependence on the Hormuz Strait is much lower than Japan’s), a credit to the Japanese diplomacy is due in putting together a joint statement with key European members of NATO and G-7 members that explicitly denounced Iran’s attacks on civilian targets and in a very subtle way placed attacks by any party on civilian oil and gas infrastructures under criticism. This rhymed President Trump’s criticism against the Israeli attack on Qatari gas plant. The list of sponsors to the statement has expanded to twenty-two as of March 23, now including South Korea, New Zealand, and Bahrain. Bringing the Europeans on board, Japan is emphasizing collective utilities of their respective alliances with the US. It is still too soon for PM Takaichi to feel relief. A prolonged war will raise pressure on Japan both through a higher energy cost and a louder US demand for allies’ naval contributions. 

Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has announced that Japanese vessels may be permitted to sail through the Hormuz Strait. The Japanese government denied any ongoing discussion with Iran, while Foreign Minister Araghchi cited a special relation with Japan as “the only Western country,” which supported Iran during its war against Iraq in the 1980s. While it is unlikely that Japan jumps onto Iran’s offer of negotiation, it makes sense for Japan to leave open possibilities of playing a diplomatic broker role between the US and Iran if the current circumstance changes. Unlike the US, Japan has diplomatic relations with Iran and past support to Iran from Japan is remembered there.

Taiwan Strait, China and G-2

There was not much public discussion about China except for the fact that Trump referred to problems between Japan and China and reassured that when he meets Xi Jinping, he will praise Japan though the visit has been postponed due to the Iran war. Japan had earlier rejected comments by the US intelligence community asserting that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks that Japan could intervene militarily in a Taiwan crisis represent “a significant shift” for a sitting Japanese Prime Minister. The commentary and Japan’s rejection of it came just ahead of the bilateral summit between Takaichi and U.S. President Donald Trump.

Tariffs, Trust and Tributes

Japan has also announced the second set of investment projects to create jobs in the US at this time, following the first round in January. The US Supreme Court struck down the Liberation Day tariffs, voiding the foundation of negotiated settlements with US trade counterparts, but Japan decided to stick to the agreement, which lowered the US tariff levels on imports from Japan in exchange for Japanese concessions including the promise of investments ($550 billion) into the US. Japan announced three investment projects: small modular nuclear reactors in Alabama, and gas-powered power plants in Pennsylvania and Texas. All are geared towards meeting the growing electricity demands due to the proliferation of data centers. The investment package likely helps President Trump score credits on the economic policy front, while it was more difficult to take any credit in the increasingly unpopular war by cornering Japan into an inescapable dilemma about its contribution.

Perception in Japan

Critics of Prime Minister Takaichi came from the left and the right, both despising her subservient approach to the US president, while the ideological center in Japan resigns to the country’s lack of diplomatic autonomy and junior status to the US and praises her selfless devotion to the country. A more careful observation reveals that the Japanese government under Prime Minister Takaichi has managed to get the US President’s ear in the same way late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe succeeded. A recent Yomiuri Shimbun poll found that 69% of respondents approved overall of the summit meeting held last week between Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and US President Donald Trump, far exceeding the 19% who did not approve. Asked about Takaichi’s statement to Trump that Japan would respond within the bounds of its laws to help stabilize the situation in Iran, 82% said they approved, far outpacing the 13% who said they did not. On the agreement for Japan to invest as much as more than ¥11 trillion ($69 billion) in the US energy sector, only 49% approved and 36% did not perhaps reflecting the hard fact that Japan gets only 10% of the returns on investment, while the US gets the rest 90%.

A columnist in Asahi Shimbun (Vox Populi, Vox Dei) rhetorically asked a question: “Is Japan coming across to the international community as shamelessly fawning on Trump, and are we Japanese being pitied by the rest of the world? It would be unbearable, if that were the case.”

Conclusions

Japan remains a junior partner with the US owing to the bondage of history and has been trying to placate the US with financial tributes. Without offending the big brother, there is some new thinking in Japan about becoming self-sufficient strategically without an overt decoupling with the US. PM Takaichi gave enough hints when she quoted the late Shinzo Abe in the joint press conference with Trump saying: “Japan is back”!

(Prof Yoichiro Sato is the former Dean of the College of Asia Pacific Studies and the Graduate School of Asia Pacific Studies, as well as the Trustee of the Ritsumeikan Trust at Ritsumeikan Asia Pacific University, Japan)